Since 2018, Ethiopia’s foreign policy changes have been associated with positive outcomes, such as improved regional peace, economic growth in the Horn of Africa, and Eritrea’s democratization. However, this paper argues that these conclusions were influenced by policymakers’ biases and assumptions about foreign policy.
Ethiopia’s foreign policy shift under Abiy Ahmed has focused on consolidating domestic power through a deeply personalized and de-institutionalized approach to foreign affairs. While there are cosmetic similarities with the past, the substance of foreign policies differs significantly. The paper emphasizes the need for policymakers analyzing foreign policy in fragile nations to examine foreign policy’s role in domestic politics.
