The Famine Trends dataset includes two kinds of overlapping events, which have hitherto largely been studied separately. First, are great and catastrophic famines. A famine is defined as a food crisis that causes elevated mortality over a specific period of time. Using the criteria developed by Stephen Devereux (Devereux 2000) for ‘great famines’ (100,000 or more excess deaths) and ‘catastrophic famines’ (one million or more excess deaths), it includes any famine for which the upper estimate of excess deaths falls above 100,000.
Second, using the four-point scale for ‘famine crimes’ developed by David Marcus (2003), the dataset also includes episodes of mass intentional starvation. For these events, the threshold is 10,000 deaths by starvation for inclusion in the listing. However, only events of mass intentional starvation that caused over 100,000 deaths are included in the quantitative dataset, on which the graphs are based.
There are major methodological issues with the estimation of excess mortality. Generally speaking, better demographic calculations lead to lower estimations of excess deaths than those provided by journalists and other contemporary observers. We might therefore reasonably expect an upward bias in the figures for earlier famines on the record. On the other hand, contemporary definitions of famine (e.g. Howe and Devereux 2004) provide thresholds for nutrition and mortality that correspond with normal or near-normal conditions in many historic societies (see Ó Gráda 2015, pp. 174-5).
This research is part of WPF’s History and Future of Famine program.
Research was led by Alex de Waal with Aditya Sarkar.
Tables and Graphs
Graph 1: Famine Mortality by decade: 1870-2010 This graph plots worldwide famine mortality between 1870 and 2010, by decade.Famines and episodes of forcible mass starvation have killed 104.3 million people since 1870. The main trend, however, is downwards. In each decade between the 1870s and the 1970s, great famines killed between 1.45 million and 16.64 million, at an average of about 927,810 per year. The last calamitous famine was Cambodia in 1975-79. Since 1980, the annual death toll in great famines has averaged 75,217, or about 8 per cent of the historic level.
Graph 2: World Population Growth and Death Toll from Great Famines: 1870-2010 The decline in famines is inversely correlated with the growth in world population, from about 1.3 billion in 1870 to 7 billion today.
Graph 3: Famine Mortality by Region and Decade: 1870-2010 The history of great famines can be classified into 4 broad periods: (a) famines of European colonialism (till about 1914); (b) the extended period of the world wars and accompanying mass starvation (from 1914 till about 1950); (c) famines caused by totalitarianism (including the famine caused by Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward), and (d) Decline and smaller famines and humanitarian crises since the 1970’s (primarily in sub-Saharan Africa).
Graph 3: Famine Mortality by Region and Decade: 1870-2010 The history of great famines can be classified into 4 broad periods: (a) famines of European colonialism (till about 1914); (b) the extended period of the world wars and accompanying mass starvation (from 1914 till about 1950); (c) famines caused by totalitarianism (including the famine caused by Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward), and (d) Decline and smaller famines and humanitarian crises since the 1970’s (primarily in sub-Saharan Africa).
Graph 4b: Regional distribution of famine deaths: 1870-2010 This chart demonstrates the same information as above (4a).
Graph 5: Famine mortality associated with armed conflict and political repression: 1870-2010 The vast majority of famine deaths were association with conflict or political repression. 35.2 million occurred in wartime, with a further 1.7 million in countries emerging from armed conflict. 42.43 million deaths occurred in famines under active political repression such as repressive colonial rule or dictatorship. A smaller number, 24.975 million deaths, was associated with neither.
Graph 6: Famine deaths and faminogenic behaviour
Following David Marcus (2003), we categorize ‘faminogenic acts’ on a four-point scale:
- First degree famine crimes: Governments or other authorities that deliberately use famine as a tool of extermination or a means of forcing a population to submit to their control. These killed 8.3 million people, 7.9 percent.
- Second degree famine crimes: Public authorities pursue policies that are the principal cause of famine, and continue to pursue these policies even after becoming aware that they result in famine. These killed 63.7 million, 61 percent, in all continents except the Americas, and in every time period.
- Third degree of culpable famine causation: Public authorities are indifferent: their policies may not be the principal cause of famine, but they do little or nothing to alleviate hunger. These killed 19.1 million, 18.3 percent.
- Fourth degree or non-culpability: Incapable or incapacitated authorities, faced with food crises caused by external factors (climatic, economic, etc.), are unable to respond effectively to needs. These killed 13.3 million, 12.8 percent.
Graph 7: Famine deaths, armed conflict and faminogenic behaviour: 1870-2010 This graph disaggregates famine mortality, by plotting the number (and proportion) of deaths that took place during conditions of war and repression, and the faminogenic behavior of governments during that period. As expected, we find that first and second degree faminogenic acts only took place during war or political repression.
Graph 7: Famine deaths, armed conflict and faminogenic behaviour: 1870-2010
This graph disaggregates famine mortality, by plotting the number (and proportion) of deaths that took place during conditions of war and repression, and the faminogenic behavior of governments during that period. As expected, we find that first and second degree faminogenic acts only took place during war or political repression.
Graph 8: Famine mortality and faminogenic behaviour by decade: 1870-2010
This graph disaggregates famine mortality attributable to the 4 degree of faminogenic behaviour, by decade.
Graph 9: Global risk of death from famine: 1870-2010 This graph plots the ratio of global mortality from great famines and the total population of the world, to formulate a very rough estimate of the risk of death from famine, on average, across the world. The trend is downwards, with a sharp decline after the 1960s.
Graph 10: Incidents of famine caused by conflict: 1870-2010
This graph plots the total number of famines that can be attributed to war or political repression between 1870-2010. Nearly half of all famines in this period occurred during active armed conflict, 26.23 percent of all famines took place during conditions of active political repression, and 3.28% of famines occurred in countries emerging from conflict. Only 21.31% of famines occurred in countries with no conflict or political repression
Graph 11: Incidents of faminogenic behaviour
This graph plots the total incidents of 1st to 4th degree faminogenic acts between 1870-2010. In our catalog, more than half of all great famines (33 instances, or about 54.1 percent) were attributable to second degree faminogenic behaviour.
Graph 12: Incidents of famine attributable to conflict and political repression by decade: 1870-2010
This graph plots (by decade) famines attributable to active armed conflict, political repression, occurring in countries emerging from armed conflict and in countries with no conflict or political repression.
Graph 13: Incidents of faminogenic behaviour by decade: 1870-2010
This graphs plots famines attributable to the different degrees of faminogenic behaviour (i.e. 1st – 4th degree) by decade.
Graph 14: Famine incidents by decade, 1870-2010
Data
| Date | Place | Cause | Deaths | Source |
| 1870-71 | Persia | Economic crisis, drought | 500,000-1.5 million | Foran 1989, Okasaki 1986 |
| 1876-1879 | China (Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Zhili, and Shaanxi) | Drought, lack of state capacity due to rebellion & colonialism | 9m | Edgerton-Tarpley, 2008; Fuller, 2015; Davis, 2002; Li, 2007. |
| 1870s | India | Drought, colonialism | 6m | Davis, 2002 |
| 1876-79 | Brazil | Drought, economic crisis | 500,000 | Cunniff, 1970 |
| 1885-99 | Congo | Colonialism, forced labor | 3m | Hochschild, 1998; Acherson 1999 |
| 1888-89 | India (Ganjam) | Drought, colonialism | 150,000 | Dyson, 1989 |
| 1888-92 | Ethiopia | Drought, war, rinderpest | 1m | Pankhurst, 1968 |
| 1888-92 | Sudan | Drought, war | 2m | de Waal, 1989 |
| 1891-92 | Russia | Drought, economic crisis | 275,000 | Robbins, 1970 |
| 1896-7 | India | Drought, colonialism | 5.5m | Dyson, 1989 |
| 1897-1901 | China | Drought, economic crisis, colonial warfare, internal rebellion | 1m | Mallory, 1926; Li, 2007; Esherick, 1987; Cohen, 1997. |
| 1896-1900 | Brazil | Drought, economic crisis | 1m | Smith, 1946 |
| 1899-1901 | India | Drought, colonialism | 1m | Dyson, 1989 |
| 1899-1902 | S Africa[1] | Boer War camps | 42,000 | Carver, 2000 |
| 1904-07 | Namibia[2] | Genocide | 34-110,000 | Olusoga and Ericsen, 2011 |
| 1905-7 | Tanganyika | Repression of rebellion | 200,000 | Iliffe, 1979 |
| 1906-7 | India | Drought, colonialism | 250,000 | Dyson, 1989 |
| 1913-14 | Sahel | Drought, colonial conquest | 125,000 | Schove, 1977 |
| 1914-16 | East Africa | War | 300,000 | Paice, 2007 |
| 1915-18 | Greater Syria (including Lebanon) | War, blockade, locusts | 350,000 | Schilcher, 1992 p.229; Antonius 1946, p.241; Fawaz 2015 |
| 1915-16 | Turkey (Armenians) | Genocide, forced deportation | 400,000 | Morgenthau, 1918; Gilbert 1994; Suny, 2015; Kevorkian 2011 |
| 1917-18 | Germany | Blockade | 763,000 | Vincent, 1985 |
| 1917-19 | Persia | War, drought | 455,200 | Afkhami, 2003 |
| 1919 | Armenia | Post-conflict | 200,000 | Hovannisian 1971 p. 130 |
| 1920-21 | China (Henan, Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanxi, Zhili (Hebei)) | Drought, economic crisis | 500,000 | Mallory, 1926; Fuller, 2013; Peking United International Famine Relief Committee, 1922; Li, 2007 |
| 1921-22 | Russia | Civil war | 1m-10m (5m official) | Lowe 2002; Patenaude 2002, pp. 196-8. |
| 1928-30 | China (NW – Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan, Shandong and Zhili (Hebei)) | Drought, War between Chiang Kai-Shek and warlords | 5.5m – 10m | Li, 2007, p. 304; Fuller, 2015 |
| 1929-30 | China (Hunan) | Drought, war | 2m | Devereux, 2000; Becker, 1996; Ó Gráda, 2009 |
| 1930-31 | Libya[3] | Concentration camps | 50,000 | Baldinetti, 2014 |
| 1932-34 | USSR (Ukraine) | Collectivization | 3.3m | Snyder, 2012 |
| 1932-34 | USSR (Russia, Kazakhstan) | Collectivization | 1.5m | Snyder, 2012 |
| 1934, 1936-7 | China (Sichuan) | War, economic crisis | 5m | Ó Gráda, 2008; Wright, 2000 |
| 1941-44 | Hunger Plan[4] | |||
| Germany/USSR | Starvation of Russian POW’s by the Wehrmacht | 2.6m | Snyder, 2012 | |
| Germany/USSR | Siege of Leningrad | 1m | Snyder, 2012; Collingham 2012 | |
| Germany/USSR | Deaths of Soviet Citizens due to starvation in the USSR, including those killed in the occupation of Kiev and Kharkiv | 1m | Snyder, 2012 | |
| Poland | Death of residents of the Warsaw Ghetto from starvation | 83,000 | United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. | |
| 1941-50 | Germany/USSR | Death of German POWs in Soviet captivity | 1.1m | World Peace Foundation forthcoming |
| 1941-2 | Greece | Blockade | 300,000 | Mazower, 1993 |
| 1942-3 | China (Henan) | War | 1.5m | Muscolino 2015; Garnaut, 2013 |
| 1941-45 | East Asia (various locations) | Japanese soldiers who died of malnutrition and starvation | 1.044m | Collingham 2012 |
| 1942-45 | Indonesia | Japanese occupation | 2.4m | Van der Eng, 2008 |
| 1943 | India (Bengal) | Govt wartime policy | 2.1m | Dyson & Maharatna, 1991 |
| 1943-44 | Rwanda | Drought | 300,000 | Devereux, 2000 |
| 1944-45 | Vietnam | Japanese occupation | 2m | Gunn, 2011 |
| 1945-47 | Eastern Europe | Reprisals against Germans | 250,000 | Lowe, 2013 |
| 1947 | USSR (Moldova and other areas) | Food shortage and policy | 600,000-1.5m | Ganson, 2009; Ó Gráda 2015, pp. 12-13. |
| 1958 | Ethiopia | Drought | 100,000 | Wolde Mariam, 1986 |
| 1958-62 | China | Govt policies | 18.5-32m | Ashton et al. 1984; Peng 1987; Ó Gráda 2015, p. 159; |
| 1966 | Ethiopia[5] | Drought | 50,000 | Wolde Mariam, 1986 |
| 1969-70 | Nigeria | War/blockade | 500,000 | Leitenberg, 2006 |
| 1970-73 | Sahel[6] | Drought | 0-101,000 | de Waal, 1989 |
| 1972-73 | India (Maharashtra)[7] | Drought | 130,000 | Dyson 1991; Devereux, 2000 |
| 1973 | Ethiopia | Drought | 200,000 | Wolde Mariam, 1986 |
| 1974 | Bangladesh | Flood, cyclones, economic crisis | 1.5m | Alamgir, 1980 |
| 1975-78 | East Timor | Conflict | 104,000 | Van Klinken, 2012 |
| 1975-9 | Cambodia | Year Zero | 1.21m | Kiernan, 2008 |
| 1983-5 | Ethiopia | War, drought | 600,000 | de Waal, 1997 |
| 1984-5 | Sudan (Darfur, Kordofan, Red Sea) | Drought, economic crisis | 240,000 | de Waal, 1989 |
| 1988 | Sudan (South) | War | 100,000 | Burr, 1998 |
| 1992-3 | Somalia | War | 220,000 | Hansch et al., 1994 |
| 1991-1999 | Iraq | Sanctions, war and dictatorship | 166,000-300,000 | Garfield 1999; Ali and Shah 2000. |
| 1995-7 | North Korea | Food shortage and govt policy | 240,000-600,000 | Goodkind et al., 2011; Spoorenberg and Schwekendiek 2012 |
| 1998-2002 | Democratic Republic of Congo | War | 290,500-5.4 million | Roberts et al. 2000, 2001, 2003; Coghlan et al. 2006, 2007. |
| 1998-9 | Sudan (South) | War | 100,000 | Medley, 2010; Burr. 1998 |
| 2003-05 | Sudan (Darfur) | War | 200,000 | Government Accountability Office, 2006 |
| 2003-06 | Uganda | War | 100,000 | Mazurana et al. 2014 |
| 2011 | Somalia[8] | Drought, war | 164,000 | Checchi and Robinson 2013; Maxwell and Nisar, 2015 |
Notes:
We note that a famine (caused by drought, floods and economic crisis) in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces of China is reported to have resulted in the deaths of 24 million people in 1907 (Kte’pi, 2011) but were unable to find any other sources to corroborate this. Consequently, we have not included this in our famine data.
[1] We do not include this in our dataset.
[2] We do not include this in our dataset, as the death toll may not have crossed 50,000.
[3] We do not include this in our dataset, as the death toll may not have crossed 50,000.
[4] The ‘Hunger Plan’ includes all episodes of mass starvation associated with the Eastern Front 1941-5, including the starvation of Jews. The total numbers who died of starvation on account of the Hunger Plan and the Final Solution is undoubtedly well in excess of the total in these lines. Starvation deaths in the Warsaw Ghetto are included because it is classified within the Hunger Plan.
[5] We do not include this in our quantitative data.
[6] We do not include this in our quantitative data.
[7] We do not include this in our quantitative data.
[8] We generate our quantitative results on the basis of the episodes of famine between 1870-2010; as a consequence we do not include this episode in our quantitative dataset.
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