The green transition and slowdown of global fossil fuel demand present an intriguing question for the future of oil-rich developing countries where less democracy, unstable and inequitable economics, and conflict have long been prevalent. Sudan offers an ex-ante look at the consequences of this transition to a post-oil world. In 2011, Sudan lost three-quarters of its oil resources after South Sudan’s separation. This article explores the impact of decarbonization on Sudan’s political economy and the role of natural resources in shaping its elite politics and foreign relations. It argues that in the short term and mid-term, the Sudanese state was able to weather the loss of most of its oil, with incumbent political elites demonstrating staying power beyond the expiry date of high oil rents. In the long term, however, rather than a diversified economy and democratic alternative emerging, both Sudan’s longstanding predatory political economy and its external exploitative links endured the decline of oil. The rising economic importance of gold, and its political ecology as a dispersed and lootable resource, coupled with opportunities for regional extraversion facilitated the violent rise of new political elites and shaped a shift in Sudan’s main foreign economic partners from China to the Gulf states.
This article was originally published March 18, 2024 in the special issue of Sage Journals Environment and Security, Volume 2, Issue 3.
